Gerald Celente

Emerging Threats
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Commentary: Nostradamus Redux
By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE, UPI Editor at Large
Published: Nov. 21, 2008 at 10:42 AM
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SINGAPORE, Nov. 21 (UPI) -- Although political forecasting and economic prognostication have long

Made astrology look respectable, there is still a latter-day Nostradamus who has defied the odds. "If

Nostradamus were alive today," said the New York Post, "he'd have a hard time keeping up with

Gerald Celente" -- the man who tracks the world's social, economic and business trends for corporate

Clients.

Celente's accurate forecasts include the 1987 stock market crash, the collapse of the Soviet Union in

1991, the 1997 Asian currency crash, the 2007 subprime mortgage scandal that he said would soon

Engulf the world at a time when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, a macroeconomist and expert on the

Great Depression, told us, "The worst is behind us." In November 2007, Celente also told UPI that a

Massive devaluation of the dollar was coming and that some Wall Street giants were headed for total

Collapse. He called it "The Panic of 2008."

"Worse than the Great Depression," Celente opined -- beginning with a sharp drop in standards of

Living, and continuing with an angry urban underclass that threatens a social order that allowed the

Mega-rich to continue living behind gated communities with summer escapades to luxurious homes on

The French and Italian Rivieras or to bigger and better and more expensive boats from year to year.

This time, Celente's Trends Research Institute, which the Los Angeles Times described as the Standard

And Poor's of popular culture, can see a tax rebellion in America by 2012, food riots, squatter rebellions,

Job marches and a culture that puts a higher premium on food on the table than gifts under the

Christmas tree.

Celente says, "There will be a revolution in this country," though not until 2012, and it will take the form

Of a bloodless coup and the meteoric rise of a third party. While all this sounds like claptrap to

Sophisticated observers inside the Beltway, one can't ignore the high marks his forecasting gets from

Such prestigious global publications as The Economist: "A network of 25 experts whose range of

Specialties would rival many university faculties."



The George Washington's Blog listed all the kudos that Celente received from a wide variety of

Newspapers, magazines and television shows. He has a solid track record. The catastrophe that is about

To hit our nation, he says, has its origin in wars we were told would be "off budget" and would not affect

More tax cuts. This is the school that says there's nothing wrong with a little deficit funding.

One of the cornerstones of America's giant economy is the ability to borrow from other countries --

Primarily China and Japan -- from $2 billion to $3 billion a day in order to maintain the world's highest

Standard of living, which is based on conspicuous consumption, at a time of growing world shortages.

That was bound to change. But Celente does not believe we can switch to a thrifty society without a

Gigantic upheaval from which a new paradigm will emerge.

On a global scale, scarce resources, including energy and water, will, at the very least, touch off regional

Resource conflicts. Celente is not that far removed from what the 100,000-strong, 16-agency intelligence

Community has been doing with its almost $50 billion Intel budget. A report released by the National

Intelligence Council this week, titled "Global Trends 2025," points to global mayhem, but not as soon as

2012, or in three years time, as Celente predicts.

The Middle East and nuclear proliferation, says NIC's report, will continue to be the CIA's principal

Concern inside the "great arc of instability stretching from sub-Sahara Africa through North Africa and

The Middle East, the Balkans, the Caucasus, South and Central Asia and parts of Southeast Asia."

NIC's most immediate alarm is "the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran spawning a nuclear arms race in

The greater Middle East will bring new security challenges to an already conflict-prone region,

Particularly in conjunction with the proliferation of long-range missile systems."

By 2025, NIC also says the United States will have to face the prospect of a relative decline of its

Economic and military power. In the interim, new superpowers will have emerged in China and India.

And China is "poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country."

Iraq, following a U.S. Withdrawal at the end of 2011, will have to face many conflicting tribal and ethnic

Groups that could easily explode and spill over into neighboring states. The perennial Middle East

conflict over the creation of a state for Palestinians will certainly not be settled by the time President

Bush leaves office. And it will retain its lethal potential for sudden eruptions of violence and wider

conflict.

Behind the scenes, Palestinians are muttering darkly about a "one-state solution displacing the

two-state approach." The secret Palestinian weapon is quite simply demographics. Since the creation of

the state of Israel in 1947, Arabs have gone from 87 million to 310 million. They expect to be half a

billion by 2025.

Assuming that President Obama can revive the long-playing peace process and come up with a new

roadmap to peace, it will be a non-starter if it doesn't include Arab East Jerusalem as the site of the

Palestinian capital. For Israel, Jerusalem is a red line, a capital that cannot be shared.