Equities and Alchemy

Equities and Alchemy


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equities and alchemy

Buyer Beware

October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.
- Mark Twain

9/20/12

Chinese Hard Landing - Business Insider

For decades, experts have been predicting a crash in China. They warned that the centrally planned, export-dependent economy, could not sustain itself year after year.

But through multiple crises, China has motored along, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty in the process.

But things appear to be different this time. Corporate profits are tanking, and the Shanghai Composite is at the same levels it was during the depths of the 2008-2009 crash. A hard landing has hit the corporate sector.

And many are questioning whether policymakers are really in control of the slowdown this time, or if the economy is in fact heading for a hard landing i.e. four straight quarters of below five percent growth. 

Chinese leaders are on notice.

A recently announced infrastructure stimulus showed that Beijing is starting to worry about the depth of its economic slowdown.

But it also signaled that its economic rebalancing has been put on hold.
How did China get to this point? When did exports and infrastructure start driving the economy? And what is driving bearish sentiment now?

We look at how the Chinese economy has changed since 1978 and the biggest challenges it has lying ahead.


 
 

China has changed rapidly in the last two decades. This is Shanghai in 1990

And this is Shanghai in 2010

Big changes came to China in 1979 when policymakers implemented reforms to open its economy

The contribution of exports to GDP surged from 4.6 percent in 1978, when reformists like Deng Xiaoping began to implement market-oriented reforms. The ratio of exports to GDP climbed to 19.2 percent in 1997 as the country became increasingly exposed to global demand.

Source: Bank of America 


This is a terrific graphic timeline of economic developments in China and needs to be studied at the source because it is too lengthy for this blog. It is complete and brings you up to speed on the issues facing China.  It makes clear that the Chinese have structural problems in their economy hence, putting to rest any notion that they will continue as the engine of global growth.

 
 



Chinese Hard Landing - Business Insider



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Poverty, Human Rights, protecting the Environment and working toward Sustainability are Mankind's greatest challenges in the 21st Century.

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Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada
Jennifer believes we live in the garden of Eden and I believe that we are destroying it. Our saving grace is within ourselves, our faith, and our mindfulness. We need to make a conscious effort to respect and preserve all life.