Equities and Alchemy

Equities and Alchemy


Jobs, financial markets, marketing, macroeconomics, individual investors, corporate criminals,
predatory financiers, market manipulation,
equities and alchemy

Buyer Beware

October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.
- Mark Twain

10/2/12

GARY SHILLING: No Housing Bottom Near - Business Insider

 Everyone thinks the housing market in the U.S. looks like it's starting to bottom.

Famed economist Gary Shilling is not one of them—you could call him notably bearish on housing.

 In fact, he expects prices to drop another 20 percent from here and doesn't think we will see a bottom in the market for another several years.

The main reasons Shilling is so pessimistic: There is a huge supply of excess inventory not being accounted for, and prices still have not fallen to anywhere near long-term historical averages.

In his monthly INSIGHT client newsletter, Shilling outlined his bearish housing thesis and used several charts to illustrate why he thinks there is no bottom in sight for the U.S. housing market, and more pain is ahead for American homeowners.


GARY SHILLING: No Housing Bottom Near - Business Insider

Link:
http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-no-housing-bottom-in-sight-2012-9?nr 


House prices have been deflating for six years, according to the bellwether Case-Shiller index

House prices have been deflating for six years, according to the bellwether Case-Shiller index
Gary Shilling



Meanwhile, the rate of home-ownership in the U.S. continues to plummet, adding pressure to excess inventories

Meanwhile, the rate of home-ownership in the U.S. continues to plummet, adding pressure to excess inventories

 



And there is a clear inverse correlation between the rate of home-ownership and the percentage of 25-34 year olds living in their parents' homes (which is still skyrocketing)


And there is a clear inverse correlation between the rate of home-ownership and the percentage of 25-34 year olds living in their parents' homes (which is still skyrocketing)

 


 Bottom Line:

Home prices need to drop another 22% to reach their 1890-2000 long-term average



 See more charts:




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Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada
Jennifer believes we live in the garden of Eden and I believe that we are destroying it. Our saving grace is within ourselves, our faith, and our mindfulness. We need to make a conscious effort to respect and preserve all life.