OECD Report: unemployment will get worse before it gets better in a tepid recovery.

quoting article by Peter O’Neil, Canwest News, September 16, 2009

PARIS -- Canada’s jobless rate could rise to almost 10% next year, to be followed by an agonizingly long period of recovery, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said Wednesday. The OECD’s report projected that Canada’s unemployment rate, which reached 8.7% in August, could rise to 9.8% by late 2010. But relief will be slow even if a U.S.-led recovery stems the jobless rate at current levels.

The report said the Harper government’s fiscal stimulus package is expected to have a “relatively large effect” in slowing job losses, with the various spending and tax cut measures slowing the rate of decline in employment.

The report said job losses have been “particularly severe for prime-aged men, reflecting a high concentration of job losses in traditionally male-dominated industries such as manufacturing and construction.” The jobless rate for 15 to 24-year-olds has reached 16.3%, more than double the adult rate.

The report said growing joblessness in Canada is of particular concern because of the relative lack of generosity of Canada’s Employment Insurance program. Canada has among the least generous employment insurance systems among western developed countries, ranking 19th out of 29 countries studied. Only the U.S., Korea, Italy, Greece, Japan, Turkey and four eastern European countries ranked lower.

The OECD report said Canada’s unemployment forecast is actually brighter than that of several other major western economies. Canada’s rate went from a low of 6% in 2007 to 8.6% in June of this year, whereas the U.S. Rate more than doubled from 4.6% to 9.5% over the same period.  The jobless rates in Canada and the United Kingdom are projected to rise to 9.8% by late 2010, while the U.S. -- with a projected 10.1% rate -- and many European countries will be in double-digit territory. The latter group includes Italy (10.5%), France (11.3%), Germany (11.8%, Ireland (15.1%) and Spain (19.8%).

“Employment is the bottom line of the current crisis. It is essential that governments focus on helping jobseekers in the months to come,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria.