Equities and Alchemy

Equities and Alchemy


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equities and alchemy

Buyer Beware

October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.
- Mark Twain

9/10/10

Ideas about payment

Economists stories:


Here's one from Alex Tabarrok of George Mason University(and Marginal Revolution). It gets right to the heart of economics.


Back in the 1700s, the British government paid sea captains to take felons to Australia. At first, it didn't work so well, Tabarrok says:


About a third of the males on one particularly horrific voyage died. The rest arrived beaten, starved, and sick. I mean, they were hobbling off, those who were lucky enough to survive.

This was a scandal back in England, so the government tried to fix it with all different kinds of rules. Force the captains to bring a doctor along. Require them to bring lemons to prevent scurvy. Have inspections. Raise captains’ salaries. None of it worked.

The clergy begged the captains, for humanity’s sake, to take better care of the prisoners. No dice.

Finally, an economist (who else?) had a new idea.
Instead of paying for each prisoner that walked on the ship in Great Britain, the government should only pay for each prisoner that walked off the ship in Australia. And in fact, this was the suggestion which in 1793 was adopted and implemented. And immediately, the survival rate shot up to 99%.

Here is the first, fundamental lesson of economics: Incentives matter.

Incentives are at the heart of all kinds of things. Everything in the tax code is an incentive — or a disincentive. When we change the regulatory rules for banks, credit card companies and mortgage lenders, we’re trying to change the incentives, to change their behavior.

But it can be tricky to get those incentives right.

Before the captains were paid to keep the convicts alive, they had different incentives — "like keep food from the prisoners, and then sell the food in Australia," Tabarrok says.

Reward the captains for keeping the passengers alive, and — voila! — they arrive alive.

A good social order, Tabarrok tells his class, aligns self-interest with social interest.





As President Obama tries to get the economy going, he may want to ponder the importance of getting the economic incentives right.


DAVID KESTENBAUM: Alex Tabarrok begins his econ 101 class at George Mason University with a simple story - a puzzle actually.

Mr. ALEX TABARROK (Student, George Mason University): I start by telling them this: As many people know, the British government once hired sea captains to ship convicted felons off to Australia.

KESTENBAUM: This was in the 1700s, and the captains on the ships were not taking very good care of the convicts. It was not unusual for prisoners to arrive in Australia dead.

Mr. TABARROK: About a third of the males on one particularly horrific voyage died, and the rest them arrived beaten, starved, and sick. I mean, they were hobbling off, those who were lucky enough to survive. So, it really was terrible, terrible conditions

KESTENBAUM: This, he tells the class, was a scandal back in England. Sure, the passengers were criminals, but this treatment was inhumane. So, the government tried to fix it - over and over.

Mr. TABARROK: So, they tried things like, you know, require the captains to have a doctor on board, to have them, you know, have the lemons, you know, prevent scurvy, all kinds of things. The clergy were appealing to these captains, for humanity's sake, to take care of these guys, and it just wasnt working.

KESTENBAUM: Not surprisingly, the hero of this story is an economist.

Mr. TABARROK: So, I tell them that the economist suggested something new. Can you guess what this economist suggested?

KESTENBAUM: Usually there is silence, silence - then hands go up, often offering things that had been tried: inspections, raising the captains' salaries. But then someone will get it.

Mr. TABARROK: And then there's like a gleam in some of the students' eyes and they think, aha and they brighten up, and they think, ah, I see it. I think I see it.

KESTENBAUM: You ready? Here is the answer.

Mr. TABARROK: Instead of paying for each prisoner that walked on the ship in Great Britain, the government should only pay for each prisoner who walked off the ship in Australia. And in fact, this was the suggestion which in 1793 was adopted and implemented. And immediately, the survival rate shot up to 99 percent.

KESTENBAUM: Ninety-nine percent from...

Mr. TABARROK: Ninety-nine.


KESTENBAUM: ...and you said on one boat, a third of the people had died.


Mr. TABARROK: Exactly. And one astute observer commented that economy beat sentiment and benevolence. So, this really is the first lesson of economics: incentives matter.




Mission:


Poverty, Human Rights, protecting the Environment and working toward Sustainability are Mankind's greatest challenges in the 21st Century.

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Jennifer believes we live in the garden of Eden and I believe that we are destroying it. Our saving grace is within ourselves, our faith, and our mindfulness. We need to make a conscious effort to respect and preserve all life.